NZ rural real estate delivers its best start in over a decade

2025/26 could be rural property’s best year in 15 years

Over the winter, our business alone is running at two times last season, with completed sales topping $200m. We have never seen such early-season demand as we have this year, particularly in the South Island.

Farmer confidence surveys continue to improve and the market is returning to long-run fundamentals, supported by favourable interest rates and a strong appetite for rural credit from all the major banks, at levels not seen since before the Global Financial Crisis (GFC).

There is no question that the broader NZ economy is really feeling it. Recent poor GDP results mirror that sentiment; however, the rural economy, which is almost entirely export-led, continues to benefit from the global demand for our quality produce, in a world where food security is no longer being taken for granted. In short, these are good times to be in farming.

In this Land & Lifestyle edition, our focus is on the dairy market (40ha+) and pastoral sheep and beef finishing and grazing (100ha+). We have two key messages for both property markets: unless you are on the property ladder, you are likely to miss out on some of the most positive market settings in the last 15 years, and for those planning a business exit in the near term, good times don’t last.

It’s often said that overnight success takes about 10 years; in our rural market, it’s probably been closer to 15 years. The level of volatility post-GFC, compounded by significant shifts in environmental and banking settings and the impact of COVID, has been quite extraordinary. While predicting the future is never wise, what we do know from a buyer’s perspective, adjusted for inflation, NZ farming assets reflect very good shopping. In our view, unless you are on the rural property ladder, you are likely to miss out on some of the best returns in a very long time. The buy-in price is unlikely to get any cheaper; in fact, it’s odds on to get more expensive.

On the other hand, for those looking to time their exit to their best advantage, the big question always is, how good is good? The sentiment of ‘one more season’ could be likened to supporting the Warriors. There is always an upside; however, we are already operating well ahead of the 10-year median for the volume of farms sold on a monthly basis this calendar year. We continue to see a lift in the median price per hectare, too, at levels at or above the last 10 years’ best sales.

"While predicting the future is never wise, what we do know from a buyer’s perspective, adjusted for inflation, NZ farming assets reflect very good shopping. In our view, unless you are on the rural property ladder, you are likely to miss out on some of the best returns in a very long time.”

For those considering selling, we keep coming back to how good is good? In a world where volatility keeps throwing curveballs, our view is that buyers will meet the market this season, but only if the property is for sale.

Included in this article are two case studies. The first is NZ dairy sales going back 15 years, and similarly, the second is sheep and beef pastoral grazing and finishing sales 100ha+, again going back 15 years. In both instances, we expect to see a significant rise in the number of farms sold this season and the median price to rise in line with the farm’s productive worth. We don’t see farmers having to discount the value of their property to get it sold or leave vendor terms on the table to compensate for a lack of credit appetite. Equally, the majority of the buyers will be established family businesses, not corporates, and the lessons of the last 15 years will not be lost on anybody, even with good access to farm credit.

So, price expectations are likely to reflect a premium on last year, but not a noose for the next 10 years. Forestry’s impact on the pastoral sector is not expected to be anything like past years (despite community fears) as it moves to a regulated framework; however, the downward price reset is now past tense, and we expect farmer-to-farmer hill country transactions to operate at or above last season’s levels.

Whether you’re looking to buy or sell your farm or lifestyle property, our True Team is here to exceed your expectations. With a perfect blend of energy and experience on your side, you can’t go wrong with Property Brokers.

Land & Lifestyle Property Guide

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